Kampala-Bound Luxury Coach Attacked in Nairobi

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A Ugandan luxury liner destined for Kampala was attacked today in Nairobi causing the death of two passengers and injuring 41 others. According to media reports, bomb experts from the Kenya police are busy putting together pieces of evidence that will eventually shed light on the sources behind the explosion after investigations are concluded. Reports indicate that the explosion happened as the bus was being loaded with general cargo and passenger belongings.

There have been conflicting reports regarding the nature of the incident. One of Nairobi’s heavyweight newspapers narrating eyewitness accounts cited that a box in the possession of three men who were hastily attempting to evade security screening exploded after it was dropped at the bus station suddenly igniting a powerful and loud explosion that created pandemonium minutes before the bus was due to depart for Kampala, the capital of Uganda. However, Kenya’s Standard online newspaper, reported that only the assailant died after being admitted to Kenyatta National Hospital and that two others died while being attended to at M.P. Shah Hospital.

So far the attack has not been linked to any party and has not been ruled out as a terrorist attack. The three East African nations of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania have in the past suffered acts of revenge coordinated by al-Qaida, an internationally-known constructivist/idealist non-state actor that is at war with the forces of Western liberal democracy.

In 1998, the simultaneous bombing of the cities of Nairobi and Dar es Salaam caused devastations of historical proportions after hundreds of civilians were killed and thousands injured in what leaders of al-Qaida described as global jihad efforts aimed at reining the forces of infidelity. In 2002, an attack on Kikambala Hotel, a luxury tourist resort in Mombasa, Kenya, left a dozen people dead and many others injured.

After a brief reprieve from acts of intimidation, the world awoke to another simultaneous attack in July 2010, this time in Uganda, after suicide bombers targeted an Ethiopian restaurant and another venue where peple had gathered around TV screens to watch a world soccer match. Both targets were located in the heart of Kampala. The double coordinated blasts instantly killed 74 revelers. Al-Shabab, Somalia’s armed Islamist faction that is battling the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu, claimed responsibility for the Uganda bombing. Uganda has a large contingent of its armed forces in Mogadishu providing protection to the TFG and battling al-Shabab.

Part of a fleet of luxury liners operated from and owned in Uganda, Kampala Coach is often frequented by students who are attracted to the expediency and quick service it provides. Uganda has recently seen an upsurge of foreign students mainly from neighboring countries because of the quality education provided by its advanced educational institutions. Students from neighboring states and the great lakes region and especially those from the East African Community take advantage of the lower tuition rates and the state-of-the-art education and cheap standards of living available only in Uganda. Today’s Uganda would rather solicit funding for road construction than for educational purposes.

Post-independence Uganda was the envy of many sub-Saharan countries because it enjoyed superior educational system inherited from the British colonial administration. The University of Makerere in Kampala was reputedly the best in Africa south of the Sahara until the abrupt rise of a military junta headed by Idi Amin Dada that briefly lasted from 1971 to 1979. The expulsion in 1972 of 60,000 Asians from Uganda by Idi Amin and his declaration of “economic war” that was aimed at the expropriation of properties owned by Asians and Europeans resulted in decline in education and the economy.

Leaders of Somalia’s armed factions, human rights groups, and residents of Mogadishu, the Somali Diaspora, and even Somali parliamentarians have voiced their objections an decried the indiscriminate shelling of civilian populations by Ugandan troops. Often, little is mentioned of the presence of the troops from Burundi in Mogadishu’s volatile environment probably because Uganda has stolen the show by providing the bulk of the required force.

Uganda’s strongman, Yoweri Museveni, recently showed up at Mogadishu International Airport unannounced. Local media reported that he conferred with his trusted commanders and also had secret discussions with President Sharif Ahmed, the man who is leading the onslaught against the insurgency. For now, until someone claims responsibility for yesterday’s bombing, we will never know the truth nor prophesy whether retaliatory measures will follow soon. But we certainly know many innocent civilians will be held accountable for crimes they never committed.

Somalia’s Transitional Government about to Fall to Insurgents

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A devastating suicide bomb brought Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital city, to a standstill yesterday when about two to three insurgents from the militant group al-Shabab penetrated Muna Hotel frequented by government figures and military officers. The well-orchestrated infiltration resulted in the death of over 80 people including parliamentarians, military officers, employees of the hotel, and civilians. Disguised as members of Somalia’s armed force as they were dressed in military fatigues, the insurgents made their way to the hotel without meeting with any resistance. Upon entering the hotel premises, the insurgents shot the hotel occupants one by one. Later, two of the suicide bombers who were suspected of wearing suicide vests denoted their bombs leaving behind a bloodbath that caused international outcry. The third accomplice, according to sources, was shot outside of the hotel by security officers while he was fleeing the deadly scene.

A few days before this terrible incident, a spokesman for al-Shabab sounded his drums of a looming war-a warning the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and AMISOM troops failed to heed. In actual fact, both al-Shabab and Hizb-al-Islam proclaimed that a major offensive was in the making during the holy month of Ramadan when Muslims observe a prolonged 30-day fast from dawn to dusk. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan began on the 11th of August and will continue until the 9th of September according to the sighting of the next new moon.

In Islamic history, Prophet Muhammad (SAW) proclaimed a decisive victory over the pagan Qureish tribe of Mecca in the Battle of Badr in the Hejaz region of present-day Arabia on the 17th of the month of Ramadan in the year 2 AH corresponding to March 17, 624 AD . It was in this war that Muhammad’s chief antagonist, 'Amr ibn Hishām was killed, according to the biographies of the prophet and the authentic hadith (traditions). Likewise, it is anticipated that a bitter war will erupt in Mogadishu on the 17th of Ramadan which falls within a few days from now. Reports that the two militant groups have mobilized a large army for this battle remain to be seen.

Somalia’s underserved military and the African Union peacekeeping troops stationed in Mogadishu have embarked on a major offensive meant to push back the advancing militants. In the meantime, there is a grounded fear Sheikh Sharif’s government could collapse anytime soon should the insurgents continue to gain more ground.

Uganda’s Museveni Promises to Finish Somalia’s al-Shabab

Uganda’s president, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, came to the throne of Uganda’s highest office in January of 1986. Ever since, besides skirmishes with the Lord’s Resistance Army of Joseph Kony, Uganda has remained at peace not until last week when two well-coordinated simultaneous suicide bombs thought to have been planted by Somalia’s militant group al-Shabab shuttered the tiny nation’s capital Kampala at a time when Ugandans were glued to their televisions in anticipation of the final world cup soccer match between Spain and the Netherlands in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Saddened by the heinous crime that crippled his nation on that fateful Sunday, Yoweri Museveni has promised to send extra troops for the AMISOM mission in Somalia. In an African Union meeting convened in Kampala this week, Museveni asked union members to allow AMISOM troops to pursue al-Shabab militants anywhere and anytime inside of Somalia.

For sure, Museveni does not understand the enormity of Somalia’s instability and the strength of al-Shabab as a force. What Museveni fails to understand is that al-Shabab is a splinter group from the former Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) that routed Ethiopia’s occupation forces a few years ago in the streets of Mogadishu. For sure, Museveni’s wild imaginations are easier said than done. The man must be daydreaming.

Joseph Kony, the atrocious warlord who wrecked havoc in Uganda for many decades and aided by an army of Ugandan child-soldiers and sex slaves, remains on the run in the jungles of the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Leg-and-hand-slashing Joseph Kony has evaded all kinds of international dragnets. In order to turn a blind eye on the plunders of the LRA's ragtag militia, Yoweri Museveni feels its time to open a new warfront.

Alice Lakwena, the prophetess who shared the same views as Joseph Kony and who aided him in his war operations, miraculously died in Dadaab Refugee Camp in Kenya. Let it be known to many that the plunders of the natural resources of the Democratic People's Republic of Congo by the Uganda army has not been forgotten.

Despite the west seeing Museveni as a ‘promising African leader’, for many in Uganda he is nothing but a criminal whose days are numbered. Under Museveni, Uganda enjoys little political freedom. Many in the opposition feel suppressed by the biased state security apparatus.

Twin Blasts Rock Uganda

The Ugandan capital has been rocked by twin blasts that left 64 people and many others injured. According to BBC reports, one of the blasts happened at a rugby field while the other occured at an Ethiopian restaurant. While it is premature to speculate at this time those behind the carnage, fingers are being pointed at Somalia's al-Shabab who have in the past threatened Uganda. Uganda has peacekeeping troops representing the African Union in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. In the past, al-Shabab has been battling AMISOM troops from Uganda and Burundi and those of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

Immediately after the blasts in Kampala, a representative of al-Shabab heaped praise on those who engineered the plot. The chief of police in Kampala thinks it is al-Shabab that carried out the bombings. It is being reported that an American from Pennsylvania was among the injured. The President of the United States, Barack Obama and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton deplored those who carried out the despicable acts in Kampala saying that help is on the way to apprehend those suspected of being behind the heinous acts.

Despite al-Shabab calling for vengeance against AMISOM troops in the past, it has never explored extremist avenues outside of Somalia. If proven beyond reasonable doubt that al-Shabab had a hand in the Kampala bombings, then it will have demonstrated its capability of inflicting harm in places previously thought of as beyond its reach. Al-shabab and its sister faction Hizb al-Islam believe in the creation of a greater emirate for Somalia. Leaders of Islamist groups fighting in Somalia are known by their nom de guerres which often have Arabic rhymings.

In southern and central Somalia where the two factions control large swathes of land, the institution of Islamic sharia seem to hold for now. Many towns have been given Arabic names; residents have been instructed to observe Islamic etiquettes and shun colonial or European-imposed ways of life. Women are required to wear full hijab and separate quotas have been assigned for their use in public transportation; men are required to keep beards and shorten moustache; the carrying of the rosary is forbidden; ringing of school bells are unacceptable; watching of the world cup soccer games is forbidden; women may not wear bras nor wear make-up; and it is compulsory for all able-bodied men and women to partake in jihad agaisnt the enemies of Islam.

Uganda is a small country in East Africa and is a member of the Intergovenmental Authority on Development (IGAD)that comprise founding member-states Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Many innocent civilians have perished in the frequent skrmishes between the Islamists and AMISOM forces prompting leaders of the Islamists to issue fatwas or religious edicts calling for revenge against the nations of Uganda and Burundi. In a meeting recently held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, member-states agreed to send extra 2,000 troops to Somalia to boost the 6,100 force already in Mogadishu. The agreement signed in Addis Ababa triggered widespread demonstrations in areas under the control of al-Shabab and Hizb al-Islam-the two formidable factions fighting for control of Mogadishu.

Beledweyne for al-Shabab

The strategetic town of Beledweyne which previously served as the main hub for Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys' Hizb al-Islam militia has finally fallen into the hands of al-Shabab. With only Ceelasha Biyaha-a massive camp for the Internally Displaced located outside of Mogadishu remaining as the last bastion for Hizb al-Islam-undoubtedly, one could conclude that Sheikh Aweys' faction is headed for total dismemberment and absolute involuntary dissolution. To add insult to injury, the number of Hizb al-Islam forces defecting to the opposition is siad to be explosive finally leading to HI's top brass disbanding and bringing to an abrupt end the Sheikh's uncalled-for loquacity, rhetorics and innuendos of the past. With HI out of the political spectrum, what everyone has to keep an eye on is how the next battle will be fought between the Transional Federal Government and Ahlu-Sunna-Wal-Jama'a on one side and al-Shabab on the other.

The World's Longest and Shortest Wars Revisited

Man has been at war with himself since time immemorial. Some wars have been short; others lasted many, many years. Some wars have been quick and decisive while others continued until the emergence of a conqueror; other wars dragged on for centuries even after the death of the masterminds. Usually, a war may be ignited by flimsy issues like a love affair, competition for scarce resources, and rivalry over leadership, disagreement over ideology or it could be over major issues like retaliatory measures over grievances, religious superiority; it could be a row over diplomacy, forceful annexation of new lands, and territorial expansion. Wars may result from internal turmoil leading to civil disobedience or it could be caused by external aggression. In almost all wars, clever men intervened to reconcile warring parties. Some wars end for good after warring parties opt for an armistice or negotiated settlements.

The longest war in human history erupted during the reign of Alexander the Great III who succeeded the throne after the assassination of his father Philip of Macedon II in 336 BC. Alexander the Great III waged war against Persia between the years 320s and 330s BC. The man who would claim the titles Hegemon of the Hellenic League, Shahanshah of Persia, Pharaoh of Egypt and Lord of Asia died at age 32 in 332 BC after capturing Syria, Egypt, Mesopotamia, Persia, and Bactria. His short-lived reign lasted only 13 years. His ambition of capturing India ended in disarray after his soldiers mutinied prompting him to turn back thus shuttering his dream of capturing Arabia. Alexander’s desire was to reach the "ends of the world and the Great Outer Sea". Thus, the wars inherited from Alexander the Great left a geopolitical vault that continue to drag on 2,500 years later between the forces of Europe and the Middle East.

In the past, many battles exploded between Europe and the Middle East with North Africa, Spain, France, the Balkans, Palestine, and Asia Minor serving as battlefields. The rise of Islam in the 7th century consolidated and strengthened the forces of Western Asia by significantly Islamizing the Middle East and tipping the poise in support of Mid-Eastern superiority for several centuries. The falling behind of the Arabs and the Turks in economic and military terms in the 19th century enabled the French and the British to impose colonialism on Muslim lands.

Another prolonged war worth mentioning erupted between the Netherlands and the Isles of Scilly (Dutch: Driehonderdvijfendertigjarige Oorlog) which lasted for three hundred and thirty five years. Strange as it may seem, not a single shot was fired for 335 years making this war the longest war with the fewest casualties. This war ignited during the Second English Civil War between the Royalists and Parliamentarians in 1642 to 1652. It was Oliver Cromwell who pushed the Royalists and secured Cornwall for the parliamentarians in 1648. Under the command of Admiral Robert Blake, the Parliamentarians finally forced the Royalists to surrender in 1651.

Because of the exact dates remaining sketchy, many historians are of the view the Vietnam War was fought against the French for 11 years (1946-1957) and 18 years against the United States (1957-1975). In total, the Vietnam War lasted 30 years. The Korean War was far much shorter than the Vietnam War as it lasted from 1950 to 1953.

Of all wars the world has seen and recorded by historians, World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945) left unforgettable scars in the memory of humanity. Industrialization, abundance of resources, advanced military technology and the mastering of modern tactical warfare by the nations of the western hemisphere, the former U.S.S.R, and Japan culminated in the speeding of aggression that led to the loss of life and property on both sides of the warring parties.

The shortest war recorded in history occurred on 27 October, 1896. Known historically as the Anglo-Zanzibar War, it was fought between the Sultan of Zanzibar and the powerful United Kingdom. This war is said to have lasted 38 minutes and has been documented to have started at 9:02 AM and ending at 9:40 AM-approximately 38 minutes though many disputes exist among historians as to the exact timing of this brutally devastating war that took tremendous life and property.

It all started after the sudden death of Sultan Hamad bin Thuwaini who died on the 24th of August, 1896. At this time in history, the British monarchy was pushing for an end to slavery in Zanzibar that was started by Omani Arabs in the 17th century. The British were in favor of Hamud bin Muhammed for the throne because he was a royal cousin of the deceased and because he did not extremely support the advancement of slavery.

However, a hot-blooded nephew of the deceased sultan, a man named Khalid bin Bargash who was an extreme supporter of slavery seized the throne in a coup. At this juncture, the British colonial administration delivered an ultimatum to Bargash ordering him to give up the throne. The big-headed Bargash challenged the British by hurriedly assembling an army of 3,000 men; he ordered the fortification of his newly-usurped Beit el-Ajaib palace or the House of Wonder; he also put into action a hurriedly-created navy in the form of the ex-Sultan’s yacht, HHS Glasgow.

At this juncture, the Royal Navy of Britain, the strongest navy in the world at that time, deployed two warships in the harbor aiming their heavy guns at Bargash’s newly-usurped abode-the Beit el-Ajaib. By now, the Royal Navy had three ultra-modern cruisers in action: the Edgar- class armored cruiser HMS St. George, the pearl class protected cruiser HMS Philomel, and the archer-class cruiser HMS Raccoon and two gunboats, the HMS Thrush and HMS Sparrow.

On the other hand, the British dispatched a landing party under the command of General Lloyd Mathews. By the time the war ended, Bargash’s palace had been razed to the ground, approximately 500 of his poorly-trained soldiers perished, and his navy was obliterated. Bargash sought refuge in the German embassy. Eventually, he escaped to Dar es Salaam in mainland Tanganyika where he was captured by British forces in 1916. Finally, the imposing but trounced Bargash was released by the British. He died in Mombasa, Kenya in 1927.

Whether short or prolonged, in essence, wars are catastrophic in nature for they exacerbate death and destruction and accelerate human suffering. Wars are known to be agonizing for fauna and flora alike and never at anytime nurture living things. Had there been no wars for all the years men have been up to their throats, the shape of the current world would have been habitable.

In the current era of globalization, the prospect of the world experiencing another major war remains slim mainly due to internalization of trade and investment and the interconnectedness of nation-states through mutual cooperation and the observance of internationally-sanctioned organizational commitments which ultimately will put an end to the concept of unilateralism and hegemony experienced in the past.

The current politically motivated wars raging in Afghanistan, Iraq, Darfur, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Somalia will come to an end in the near future. The only wars that will remain mind-boggling to the international community will be the current unsolvable Israeli-Palestinian conflict whose ideals rest on religious and ethnic dividing lines and China's domination of the world's economy 2050 and beyond.

Somalia: Back to pre-Islamic Era of Ignorance

Just today, in Somalia's wretched City of Mogadishu, two remote-controlled bombs simultaneously went-off in the famous Ali Shideye mosque crowded by worshippers killing over 30 people and injuring almost 100 others. The prime target of the bomb was Sheikh Fuad Shongole, a naturalized Swedish citizen and a high profile in al-Shabab's assembly of sheikhs. According to a spokesman for al-Shabab, Sheikh Fuad survived the bombing though he sustained injuries to the hands and other parts of the body. So far no one has claimed responsibility.

Today's bombing of a religious stronghold manned by al-Shabab demonstrates the emergence of a powerful opposition force that is capable of inflicting considerable damage to any future militaristic ambitions by al-Shabab and her allies. Forces opposed to al-Shabab seem to be reinventing their war strategies by coming up with superior tactics that could cause collateral damage to where unleashed.

Of late al-Shabab has been capturing new grounds from AhluSunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) in the central regions. Al-Shabab's provocative actions prompted ASWJ to join the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). This collective initiative will empower the unified government to marshal a dependable, effective, and loyal force to counter al-Shabab's continued aggression. According to media reports, leaders of ASWJ have been quoted as saying that they will entirely eradicate al-shabab from Somali territorial soil through coordinated efforts. Perhaps, it could turn out to be a dream come true.

Besides al-Shabab, another faction by the name of Hizbul Islam (HI) has its head up in Somalia's mangled politics. HI is headed by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a former Somali army colonel who fought the government of Ethiopia in his heydays with al-Itihad al-Islami. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and the current president of the TFG, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, under the banner of the Union of Islamic Courts hereafter referred to as UIC, meticulously executed the defeat of the dreaded warlords in 2006. The two buddies parted ways when Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was inaugurated president of the TFG a year ago in a ceremony conducted in Djibouti under the auspices of the international community.

HI is closely allied with al-Shabab in ideology though the two technically remain at war. In the past HI lost large swathes of land in the southern part of the country to the forces of al-Shabab. Recently, Sheikh Hassan Turki, formerly a staunch ally of HI and leader-founder of Muaskar Ras Kiamboni, after thorough negotiations and tough deliberations, switched sides by pledging allegiance to al-Shabab in a well-arranged ceremony. Such is the ideological delicacy and political intricay of the lackadaisical multifarious forces josstling for power in the name of Islam in Somalia.

One other ideological reject is Sheikh Ahmed Madobe who is holed up in Somalia's southern border with Kenya. Rumor has it that Sheikh Ahmed Madobe is a close relative of Sheikh Hassan Turki. What prompted Hassan Turki to abandon his brother when he needed him most will remain shrouded in mystery. In the meantime, Sheikh Ahmed Madobe conducts guerilla raids on villages and towns straddling Somalia's southern border that are predominantly inhabited by his tribesmen but under the control of al-Shabab.

As you can see from the topic above, Somalia is headed for the era of ignorance-the era before the forces of Islam swept the Arabian peninsula. It was an era when women had no discource; children suffered at the hands of their own biological fathers especially girls who were buried alive in the scorching sands of the Arabian desert; tribal wars erupted frequently and the golden rule was "whoever has the gold rules". The hostile tribes of pre-Islamic Arabia committed excesses that included worship of idols, highway robbery, plunder, murder, and a host of crimes equal in enormity to what is happening now in Somalia.

Dear reader, the sanctity of houses of worship have been violated and human life given to the dogs. Can you imagine at the time this ugly incident happened hundreds of people had gathered for the obligatory noon prayers and all of a sudden a deranged person detonates devastating bombs just to seek revenge. Revenge in the House of Allah? To what religion do they belong those who commit such crimes? Can we call them Muslims?

Islam means peace, submission to the will of Allah; it means obedience. When inside a mosque a Muslim is supposed to submit wholeheartedly to Allah with sincere devotion and forget the allure of this world. A Muslim is the one who observes the divine laws stated in the Qur'an and the Hadith. Furthermore, according to Islamic teachings, the punsihment for killing an innocent person in the hereafter is to dwell in hell forever.

Somalia has been without a central government since 1991 when the ironfisted military government paved way for clan warfare, warlordism, and anarchy. The succession of administrations in the name of Transitional Federal Government never had complete control of the country except being holed-up in Villa Somalia-the delapidated presidential place.

It is a clear fact that war can only be declared by the head of a sovereign state and not by criminals forcefully imposing unjustified laws in a lawless country. The current transitional president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, because of his unending adventure travels, remains a president in name only otherwise he is a president-in- absentia.

Unless someone claims responsibility, it will be absolutely hard to uncover the perpetrators of today's bloodshed. To this day, last year's unsolved despicable crime that cut short the lives of a dozen graduating doctors remains a mystery. A government that controls a few blocks in a city of a million people whose survival is at stake must not be expected to avail a comprehensive and conclusive forensic report now and in the future because it is already showing signs of imminent departure from the political spectrum.

Mogadishu Braces for Clash of Titans

Southern Somalia’s militant giant al-Shabab, the only leading force that is still wielding considerable political, social, and economic clout and the most formidable force that remains an obstacle to Sheikh Sheriff’s otiose and corrupt administration, has taken one further attempt to overrun Galgadud region currently controlled by ASWJ-the Sufi-led faction that just finalized an agreement with the TFG. Despite beating the drums of war loudly and pronouncing a declaration of war against al-Shabab and despite the TFG mobilizing its forces for a final onslaught, al-Shabab is seemingly emerging a force to reckon with. Its marvelous application of covert and overt battle operations, its ability to mobilize forces, its meticulous garnering of public support through the use of diplomacy, radio and cyberspace communication, its adroitness at manipulating tribal elders, and its meritorious skill of tendering support to minority clans for the sake of weakening and deracinating powerful tribes that pose threat to its survival, and its undaunted will to survive unparalleled hardships and challenges remain tools yet to be discovered by its avowed enemies inside Somalia’s murky political waters.

Al-Shabab has even become skillful at controlling international aid agencies operating in the areas under its control by requiring them to abide by stringent laid out rules and regulations otherwise they risk being kicked out of the country. The recent altercation between the World Food Program (WFP) and al-Shabab where WFP ultimately pulled out of southern Somalia revolved around al-Shabab’s demand that WFP buy local Somali farmers produce instead of bringing in expired relief supplies to the country and distributing as a humanitarian gesture to an already famished and displaced war-afflicted persons.

Al-Shabab’s refusal to allow WFP run its relief operations has led to massive starvation of residents of ceelasha biyaha and opened a new round of hostilities with a select group of council of elders supported by the hierarchy of Hizb al-Islam who feel al-Shabab is imposing sanctions on their tribal enclaves where majority of their kinsmen or followers reside. The enclave in question-ceelasha biyaha as it is called or the water wells-is roughly a few miles to the north of the town of Afgoi-where the largest concentration of internally displaced persons (IDPs) who escaped the shelling in Mogadishu resides.

So far the said council of elders has issued a decree denouncing the actions of al-Shabab and to that effect are convening an assembly that include the top echelons of Hizb al-Islam who will collectively deliberate on the most effective countermeasures to take. Sooner or later a deadly clash of titans could be expected should al-Shabab continue to stubbornly deny the said IDPs access to WFP’s relief supplies.

Ironically, many Somalis, presidential observers, and political analysts are bewildered and dumbfounded at President Sharif’s peripatetic itinerary. His travel plans bring into play a passion for endless merrymaking and craving for leisure travel, red carpet receptions and deafening twenty-one gun salutes, all-you-can-eat buffets set around intricately and articulately designed manicured lawns, and accommodation at five-star hotels with continental breakfast to share with an inflated procrastinating entourage lacking guided protocols and principles.

To make matters worse, the absence of accountability and national security and the absconding of duty by those who took the oath of allegiance to the constitution have made the current Transitional Federal Government headed by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed wallow in pathetic corruption and remain absorbed in indeterminate situation.

Shocking revelations of embezzlement and mismanagement of donor funds, political bickering and the higgledy-piggledy nature of its bloated parliament, the exodus of highly-priced, newly-trained, and tribally-inclined troops switching allegiance then joining jihadi camps, and the tiptoeing of the colony of political chameleons hiding in its midst seem not to be signaling its ultimate salvation but its timely and imminent death.

Goormu Istaagi Doona Dagaalka Soomaaliya?

Tan iyo intii xukunka laga tuuray Madaxweyne Maxamed Siyaad Barre sannadkii 1991, ummadda Soomaaliyeed weli waxaa ka dhex aloosan colaad aan dhammaad lahayn. Waa kastoo barya, qorrax kastoo dhacda, gudcur iyo ileys, gu' iyo jiilaal, waxaa dhegaha caalamka ka dhammaan la' ibtilo aan dabargo' lahayn iyo hadalhayn aan dhadhan wanaagsan lahayn. Waxaaso balaayo ah waxaa usabab ah rag aan damiir lahayn oo aan garaneyn muhiimadda ay leedahay dawladnimada. Si kastoo dib-uheeshiisiin loogu qabtana, ugu dambeyn natiijadu waa kalaguur. Mid kasta wuxuu hamiyaya inuu noqdo madax sifa uu danihiisa iyo tan qabiilkiisa uhormariyo.

Dabcan, dawlado badan ayaa soo maray isjiidjiid siiyadeed iyo dagaalo lagu hoobtay. Hase yeeshee waa ay ka gudbeen. Soomaaliyaana ma aha qarankii ugu horeeyay ee jaba oo waa looga horeeyay. Hadiii aynu eegno qaaradda Afrika, dawlado ay kamid yihiin Rwanda, Burundi, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Zaire, Kenya, iyo kuwo kale ayaa dhammaan xilliyo kalageddisan la kulmay colaad hadba noocuu rabo ha ahaadee. Inkasto loolan siyaasadeed uu kadhexdilaacay raggii horboodaayey hurinta colaadeed waddamadani aan hore kuso sheegay, waxay ugu dambeyn la yimaadeen heshiis iyo afgarasho sidii lagu badbaadin lahaa umadda dhibaateysan ee dhexdooda ku baaba'ayay.

Laga soo bilaabo 1991, Soomaaliya waxaa loo dhisay dhawr dawladood oo ay caalamka kubixisay malaayiin lacag ah. Dawladahaasina waxay noqdeen hal bacaad lagu lisay. Weriye reer galbeed ah ayaa wuxuu yidhi "Jeneraal Caydiid wuxuu cunaayey cunto nadiif ah oo kulul ayaadoo teendhada uu kujidhay debedeeda dadku ay gaajo ugu dhammaanayeen." Haddii Caydiid uu lahaan lahaa qof iimmaan iyo damiir dhab ah leh, kama suurtowdeen in uu dhergo ayadoo dadkiisa gaajo udhammaanayaan. Sideedaba, waa xaaraan in qof Muslim ah caloosha buuxsado ama dhergo asagoo og in uu jidho ruux kale oo gaajeysan.

Maanta, ummadda Soomaaliyeed dunida dacalladeeda oo dhammi ayey ku tabaaleysantahay. Waxaan ka ahayn kuwa qurbaha kunool, Soomaali inteeda badani gaajo iyo macluul ayey ladhammaaneysa. Haddii ay umaaddu shaqeysan lahayd, waxaa udiiday rag calooshood ushaqeysteyaal ah oo aan marnaba arki karin cid kale oo xamaalaata ama macaashta. Soomaali waxay noqotay wax ladilo, wax qaxa, iyo wax buka oo aan waxba istari karin. Haddii adduunka usoo gurman lahaana, kuwo dulli ah ayaa hortaagan oo udiidan daryeel ama gargaar caalami.

Soomaali deriskeeda ayey dagaal kutahay. Waxaa waddankeedu kadillaacay xisbiyo badan oo aan lahayn mabda'a ama tabo siyaasadeed. Kuwa horboodayana ama waa haraadigii dawladdii duntay ama waa odayaal kudagaalama maskax shisheeye. Qaar baa waxay layimaadeen dhaqan aan hore looga aqoon geyiga Soomaaliyeed. Dumarka ayey waddooyinka kukarbaashaan; dil joogta ah ayey umadda kuhayaan; canshuur ayan awoodiin ummadda masaakiinta ah ayey uruurshaan; dhac, boob, kufsi ayaa dadkii lala dabataaganyahay.

Dhirtii waa laxaalufiyay oo waxaa laga dhigay dhuxul loo dhoofiyo waddammada carabta; badeheeni waxaa harqiyay maraakiib shisheeye iyo qowleysato lamagacbaxay "budhcad badeed"; sun iyo qashin warshadeed ayaa laga buuxshay xeebihii; abaar, biyo la'aan, cunto la'aan, cudur, dil iyo dhac ayaa ciiddeeni rogay. Haddaba, waxaan odhan lahaa Soomaali ha iska sabarto, Eebbe ayaa keenayaa nasteexe.

Kenya Points Fingers at Al-Shabaab

There have been a lot of unease and violent demonstrations on Friday in Nairobi, Kenya’s capital city, after Muslim demonstrators took to the streets demanding the release of Jamaican Muslim cleric, Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal who is being held for preaching religious hatred and awaiting deportation to his native Jamaica. Earlier, the Kenya Police denied Muslim Human Rights Forum a permit to hold peaceful demonstrations. However, on Friday Muslim demonstrators gathered outside Nairobi’s Jamia Mosque to protest against the detention and forceful deportation of Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal. The demonstrations turned violent after the police used live bullets and lobbed teargas at the demonstrators.

According to George Saitoti who is the minister responsible for internal security, two civilians were killed in the fracas, three others wounded and six police officers injured. However, Government Spokesman Alfred Mutua contradicted the minister, saying only one person died and 11 injured five of them civilians. According to the Standard Newspaper, Saitoti was flanked at the news conference by Ministers Yusuf Hajji (Defence), Mohamed Kuti (Livestock) and Mohamed Elmi (Development of Northern Kenya and Arid Lands) who condemned the protest in the strongest terms and also called for a thorough investigation into the causes of the violence.

Perhaps, the presence of hooligans who were not party to the demonstrations but who were there for the sake of looting the surrounding businesses resulted in the use of force by the police. Since attaining independence from Britain in 1963, the use of brutal force to quell disturbances by the Kenya police and security forces is well documented. A case in point is the Wagalla airstrip massacre of 1984 where hundreds of innocent civilians were gunned down by the security forces that was supposed to protect them. The enormity of this incident is documented in a book titled Blood on the Runway.

Kenya Muslim leaders have called on the government to take action against the police officers who were responsible for the deaths of the innocent unarmed demonstrators. They also called for the sacking of the commissioner of police and the resignation of Alfred Mutua, the government spokesman or else they will take undisclosed action. In a land where human and civil rights activists have been targeted in the past by the state apparatus, the possibility of having thorough investigations and fair jurisdictions must not be taken for granted.

According to the Kenya Government, Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal entered the country on a tourist visa but attracted the government’s attention after he started preaching religious intolerance. The Jamaican preacher was previously expelled out of the country only to be returned to Kenya because there was no country that would take him. Most airlines have refused to ferry him because he is on the no-fly list.

Now Kenya is pointing fingers at Al-Shabaab, the religious faction fighting for control of Somalia. Currently, Al-Shabaab is in total control of Somalia’s southern provinces and has been expanding territorially for the past few years.

Western intelligence sources have indicated that Al-Shabaab is fighting a proxy war and that its main leaders had previous training in Afghanistan and that it has hundreds of foreign fighters inside Somalia carrying out assassinations and suicide bombings.

Sources report that some of the demonstrators were waving the black flag of Al-Shabaab while shouting slogans in support of the group. If this be the case, then Al-Shabaab has infiltrated Kenya’s social fabric and that its rhetoric of spreading religious upheaval may be coming to fruition.

Unlike Mungiki, Kenya’s underground gang that has been the cause of past civil disobediences, what is worth comprehending is that Al-Shabaab is a well-organized armed group with inflexible intelligence structures and positive logistics and that it is capable of surviving for a long time just like the Taliban of Afghanistan.

In other developing news, the man who is the spokesman for Al-Shabaab in Somalia’s Juba regions, Sheikh Hassan Yakub Ali, has been quoted as saying that the current wars raging in the Hiiraan and Galgaduud regions are being waged by Ahlu-Sunna-Waljamaaca that is in alliance with the Somali Transitional Government against the forces of Al-Shabaab and Hizbul-Islam. The spokesman further heaped blame on the Ethiopian government and AMISOM troops in Somalia for arming the Somali government and Ahlu-Sunna-Waljamaaca.

On the other hand, frustrated by the continuous infiltrations of Al-Shabaab militia into Kenya’s North Eastern Province (NEP) and the subsequent abductions of foreigners, after prolonged deliberations, elders of the Kenya-Somali community issued a strongly-worded statement admonishing the leaders of Al-Shabaab to refrain from destabilizing a peaceful Kenya that is already host to thousands of refugees from Somalia and from around the region.

Obviously, the exhortations directed at the leaders of Al-Shabaab will fall on deaf ears since Al-Shabaab’s intentions are farfetched. Al-Shabaab is first determined to secure Somalia and then establish an Islamic government and from there on it will, presumably, carry the war to the Ogaden region in Ethiopia and the former Northern Frontier District (NFD) of Kenya. The two regions were annexed to Ethiopia and Kenya respectively during the colonial era. Neither Ethiopia nor Kenya is willing to give away an inch of their territory come what may.

In every healthy democracy citizens have a right to demonstrate as demonstration is a sign of alleviating misconceptions and voicing concerns and grievances. A government that respects the rights of its citizens must hold the voices of its citizens in high esteem. In the case of the demonstrations in Kenya, that did not happen because in the first instance Muslims were denied a permit to converge and rally behind what they deemed a just cause.

Kenya has seen enough of civil disturbances and any repeat must be avoided at all cost. The 2008 election irregularities in which the supporters of Raila Odinga, the current Prime Minister and those of the President in the helm, Mwai Kibaki, that left over 1,000 dead and many others injured and displaced, should be enough to forewarn Kenyans of the consequences of political stupidity and absurd human miscalculations.

To this day, the 2008 incidents remain issues of political contention as Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the Argentinian man appointed by the International Criminal Court (ICC) is about to indict the instigators and have those found guilty kept behind bars. Luis Moreno-Ocampo is credited with indicting the generals who committed gross human injustices during the reign of Augusto Pinochet of Argentina.

With rising crime and biting unemployment and tense social and political instability adding up to the nation's woes, Kenya leaders should discard any future idea of firing another live bullet at its citizens. Leadership is about having absolute vision, perseverance, patience, observing sanctity of life, and respecting human dignity. The recent squabbling between Uganda and Kenya over the tiny Migingo Island on Lake Victoria seems to have been forgotten.

To avoid unforeseen disturbances, the Kenya government, instead of holding Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal in detention for such a long time, must do all it can to fly him out of the country to Jamaica-his country of origin-even it means hiring a special jet for this one-time adventure. Then, it will have to embark on the long and arduous journey of having close working relationships with Muslim leaders and also demonstrate to its Muslim citizens its good intentions. Then after the dust settles, the Kenya government must prove beyond reasonable doubt how Al-Shabaab is meddling in its internal affairs so it can have the unanimous support of Kenya Muslims.

Daggers drawn up north

International media is abuzz with news about the departure of Ethiopian troops from Somalia yet up north, the unrecognized breakaway Republic of Somaliland and the State of Puntland have daggers drawn as each gears up for the much-awaited Presidential elections. The current standoff is in the town of Widhwidh in the Cayn province claimed by both sides. Unreliable sources claim that the commander of the Somaliland Army responsible for military operations in Cayn has been killed by Dhulbahante clan loyalists when the officer brought in ballot boxes meant for the Presidential elections for Somaliland.

According to reports in the local media houses, a number of unaccounted for civilians and military personnel died in the ensuing battles. Both sides, Somaliland and Puntland are mobilizing forces in order to secure the Cayn region that attracted much publicity in the last few years.

On the other hand, Ethiopian troops have begun complete withdrawal from bases in southern Somalia. The power vacuum left by the departing Ethiopian troops have attracted various armed groups and created scuffles in and around the capital city, Mogadishu. Some of the vacated police stations are now in the hands of the forces of the Union Courts headed by Sheikh Sharif Ahmed while there are also reports that the militant group Al-Shabab is flexing muscles and sweeping vacant stations in Mogadishu. Thus, the departure of Ethiopian troops is a harbinger for renewed fighting in the north and south of Somalia as well.

Likewise, premeditated attacks on the African Union peace keeping forces in Mogadishu have intensified with increased mortar fire and heavy artillery becoming the order of the day. For the moment, things will get worse until winner takes all.

Bloodshed in Kismayu

Kismayu is Somalia's southern port city and also the third largest city. Since 1991, when the central government collapsed, there has been bitter rivalry between warring clans for control of this strategic city bordering Kenya's northern border coastline. Before 1991, it was home to a squadron of the Somali Navy and infact had its port rehabilitated by George Fuller Company in the early 80s. Known for clean and beautiful beaches, tropical weather, serene atmosphere, and peaceful locals, Kismayu had her image boosted by the Italian colonial administration before Southern Somalia unified with the northern British Somaliland in 1960 to form what became known as the Republic of Somalia.

The city of Kismayu is located in the productive Juba Valley with surrounding towns of Jilib and Jamame collectively serving as farming centers while many other bordering regions produce the bulk of livestock for sale in Arabian markets. Thus, whoever is in control of Kismayu pockets all the hard currency generated by the port through taxation of goods and services. On the other hand, there is agressive charcoal burning desperately needed for Arabian fireplaces. Also, the area around Kismayu is rich in agroforestry while the coast, despite overfishing by unlicensed foreign fishing trawlers, is home for many fish species.

The combined forces of the militias of the United Somali Congress (USC) under the supreme command of General Mohamed Farah Aidid, together with the Somali National Movement (SNM) under the chieftainship of Abdirahman Tuur of the nothern Somali regions, and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM) led by Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess devised the initial plot in Ethiopia to overthrow the government of Major General Mohamed Siyad Barre with a view to establishing a power sharing government though everything fell in disarray.

Abdirahman Tuur moved to the northen part of the country in what is now Somaliland while Aidid and Jess continued to wreck havoc in the South of the country unabated. Within a short time, a new character emerged. It was General Said Hersi alias Morgan. General Morgan moblized an army of clansmen from the south, east, and the central regions in an attempt to curve a new administration for himself. For a while, General Morgan, who is son-in-law of the overthrown President, captured Kismayu. Thus began a prolonged period of josstling for power in Kismayu between southern Somalia's two most political rival clans-the Hawiye and Darod.

In the end, Colonel Jess and General Morgan became persona non grata as a more powerful force in the name of Juba Valley alliance under Colonel Barre Adan Shire in collaboration with a sub-section of the Hawiye clan, took over power in Kismayu laying foundations for a rule that lasted almost a decade.

In 2004, a Transitional Federal Government was formed in Mbagathi, Kenya, with Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as interim President. Colonel Jess, Colonel Barre Adan Shire alias Barre Hiiraale, and General Morgan were appointed to the legislature as parliamentarians. General Aidid died in 1996 and is depicted in the movie black hawk down.

In June of 2006, a new breed of fighters under a Jihadist umbrella known as the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) overthrew the warlords that ruled Mogadishu for over a decade only to be routed by Ethiopia's intervention. It was this misadventure that brought back Colonel Barre Hirale to the peripheries of Kismayu again with a new alliance and political force. Since no condition is permanent in Kismayu and Southern Somalia, just recently, an amalgamation of guerilla movements aimed at introducing Islamic Sheria to all of Somalia and pledging allegiance to a cluster of alliances within Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and bitterly opposed to the presence of Ethiopian forces and the TFG in Baidoa, meticulously executed a resounding blitzkrieg that saw them put Kismayu in their newly created realm.

The whereabouts of colonel Barre Hirale remain a mystery though a few conflicting internet sources report him to have been sighted in the town of Qoqani or as others cite otherwise, in the village of Fafaxadhuun, where his militia exchanged a few salvos with the local inhabitants. He is said to be besieged and unable to venture into Baardheere-his clan's territory-for fear he might be perceived as an uninvited guest as religious funtamentalism has infiltrated every corner of his homeland and beyond. But the latest reports say he has two bullets to the abdomen and that he is in Baardheere town itself awaiting medical evacuation to Addis Ababa as the Kenya government has refused him entry on the grounds his presence may incite social violence.

As the clock ticks and as the deadline for the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia approaches, Islamist forces seem to be expanding their tentacles. They have captured Kismayu; more firepower is being seen and heard in Mogadishu and its environs; Baidoa, the seat of the TFG, is shaky and the central regions seem be getting out of control. Whether Ethiopia redeploys her troops to retake Kismayu is yet to be seen. For now, despite the deaths of innocent civilians caught in the crossfire, the Sheikhs are busy cleaning the city with full force.

The World Must Stop Zenawi's Atrocities

Someone somewhere is happily financing, arming, and providing every available logistical and strategic support to fuel the atrocities being committed by Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's monstrous Prime Minister, against the innocent civilians of Somalia, the people of Ogaden, and Oromia. This is setting a wrong precedent and a very excruciatingly painful future for the Horn of Africa.

Somalis and Oromos have been at war with past Abyssinian kingdoms for centuries not over politics but over land. Every time the two won a war against the Abyssinian murderers, a foreign force intervened in favor of the oppressive Abyssinian kingdoms.
A prime example is the 15th century war between the gallant forces of Ahmed Gurei alias 'gran' or the 'left handed' who fought with such valor that the ruling Abyssinian Emperor called for Portuguese help.

Also, Seyyid Mohamed Abdille Hassan alias 'Mad Mullah', a Somali nationalist, poet, and hero, despite ferociously fighting for twenty uninterrupted years against joint British, Italian, and Habasha forces, and having found himself weakened and surrounded by enemy power on all fronts, disbanded so as to retire to his native Ogaden region where he met his final death in the village of Iimeey.

The 1997-1998 war between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Ogaden region took many innocent lives. Despite conquering almost ninety percent of this region from Mengistu's red terror regime, Somalia's armed forces had no other option but to retreat after combined Russian, Cuban, and Yemeni forces sided with Ethiopia. The destruction caused on both sides by this war, is to be felt to this day as hatred, suspicion, and poor neighborliness remain visible on the faces of the warring parties.

What is transpiring today is a repeat of the old tactics applied by Somali and Oromo enemies. Some foreign powers are fully engaged at ensuring Ethiopia continues with her irredentist mentalities and territorial usurpations. Ethiopia has been left to raze, burn, and dislodge its citizens who see to it for protection and guidance. Satellite images taken from thriving villages that were intact a few years ago, today depict different gloomy pictures with indiscriminate bombardments of these same villages by the Ethiopian army clearly visible to the naked human eye.

Killings, rape, and plunder has been used by Ethiopian forces as a means to win wars of any nature. Assimmilation and integration, power sharing and political parties are major factors that don't work in this country of over 70 million where a fair share of the cake always goes to the clan in power and to the stooges that support it loudly. Yesterday, it was the Amhara, and today it is their blood relative, the Tigrayans, led by Meles Zenawi, who live in complete luxury while the rest either have to sing the regime's desiderata to survive or live in ignominy or starve to death.

Meles Zenawi's atrocities seem to have been ignored by the world. Perhaps, humankind is not mature enough to understand the concept of human rights. Human rights violations and cases of genocide are pretty much rife in Ethiopia. It is the creation of human greed and jostling for power that has left millions dead, maimed, and homeless in this beautiful Horn of Africa. The best the internatinal community can do is to stop Meles Zenawi's atrocities for the time being and come with a strategy for the good of this region in turmoil.

Too many strategic exits with uncertain futures in the Horn of Africa

It is better to have a bad government-however brutal it may be-than be without one. Somalia may not be the first country in the world to experience two decades of devastatation caused by brutal wars culminating in the death of thousands if not millions of innocent civilians and the displacement of an equal number scattered the world over either as refugees or as internally displaced within its own borders compounded by disease, hunger, and poor sanitation. Of course, the world has been through many heinous wars most notably in Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Mozambique, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Angola, and the list could be endless. Most African wars have been described as 'tribal wars'-where one tribe or clan feels 'enough is enough'-and that time is ripe to take power by force from the clan that dominated politics for so long. In Europe, it is called 'ethnic wars'-where two races compete for dominance as happened after the break up of the former Yugoslavia that pitied Christians against Muslims or Serbs (Christians) against Bosniacs (Muslims).

Somalia is a sparsely populated country bordering the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean yet its roughly 10 million inhabitants are relatively poor besides the thousands who fled to Western Europe, North America, the Middle East, Australia and New Zealand. It is a Less Developed Country (LDC); it has incredibly low Natural Increase Rate (NIR); its Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is not something to worry about though its Crude Death Rate (CDR) and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) are of concern for demographers, international Aid Agencies, and the World Bank. Four decades of misrule has left Somalia a laughing stork, yet, the abundance of natural resources it has could sustain not only her citizens, but many outside her borders. Despite having untapped oil and natural gas, unexploited minerals, and a wealth of fisheries and agricultural lands, the people of Somalia remain a burden to the world donor nations because, a succession of civil disorbedience and negative political practices have continually torn apart this homogeneous race in to enormous tribal segmentations and unparalleled clan rivalries.

For twenty-one years, many in the West saw the rule of President Mohamed Siyad Barre of Somalia as having dictatorial credentials while Somali tribes opposed to his rule felt marginalized despite having ripe grapes in their baskets. Poor governance coupled with tribal mindedness, illiterate governors, mismanagement of the economy, bad ideology like Communism and Socialism and other factors led to the sudden fall of a once powerful nation that was the envy of many in Africa-especially neighboring countries that had a long standing border dispute with Somalia. Today, the same countries that opted for the collapse of Somalia, have become the ears and eyes for a succession of merciless warlords and shadowy transitional governments which they direct at will because they are the providers of the bulk of arms and money needed to advance their modus operandi which include territorial dismemberments, tribal divisions, and unstoppable atrocities.

After sixteen years of bloodshed by anarchic warlords, an otiose Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was born in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2004, with the blessings of the international community. For almost a year, the TFG was unable to relocate to Somalia for fear of reprisals from the Union of Islamic Courts hereafter referred to as UIC. Born out of the amalgamation of eleven minor tribal courts, the UIC routed the West-funded warlords in a matter of months. Poor political strategies, ideological affiliation of some cadres with the dreaded Al-Qaeda, and religious rhetorics at the US, Kenya, and Ethiopia, did not go down well with the poweful forces of democracy and enforcers of 'World Order'.

The President of the TFG, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, a former Army Colonel, was and is too inexperienced to tackle the Somali political debackle-a mess he was party to even prior to the collapse of Siyad Barre's Junta. Since his inauguration as President of Somalia, life has gone from the better to worse for the people of Somalia especially after the incursion of the Ethiopian Army in to Somali soil where the level of violence has doubled since. Many of his previous supporters have joined the ranks of the newly-founded reliberation movements fighting to oust him and repel the Ethiopian occupation. Hussein Farah Aideed, a former U.S. Marines Sergeant and son of General Farah Aideed-the man behind the re-enactment of Hollywood's acclaimed movie "Black Hawk Down"-was the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Interior for the TFG before joining the rebel Asmara Group hosted in Eritrea. The former Speaker of the TFG and a group of rebel Parliamentarians thought to constitute a good forty, are also thought to have established base there. Unfortunately, these former members of the TFG, are guests for President Afewerki who is at loggerheads with the regime in Addis Ababa-a regime headed by his maternal cousin, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia.

Eritrean rebels fought Ethiopia for over thirty years before reclaiming their soverignty in the early ninties. Since reclaiming independence from Ethiopia, Eritrea has fought Yemen over tiny Islands in the Red Sea; almost a million died in a bloody war with Ethiopia over disputed territories; it has made incursions in to Djibouti territory over the last few weeks; and lastly but not least, it is engaged in the Somali turmoil unrestrained.

Ironically, President Afewerki is not only host to the Somali Asmara rebel group, but to a variety of liberation movements fighting to break away from Ethiopia most notably the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Front, and a group that represents the Amhara-an ancient tribe that ruled Ethiopia for centuries before the emergence of Colonel Mengistu Haile Miriam in a bloody coup in the mid-seventies. Known for his terror brigade that annihilated millions of innocent Ethiopians and the atrocious and forceful relocation of enemy tribes to environmentally hostile lands, Colonel Mengistu murdered the "Star of Christianity"-His Royal Highness, Emperor Haile Selasie, an Amhara and had him buried in his grandiose palace where his footstool lay. The remains of the Emperor have been reburied in a golden mausoleum in the heart of Addis Ababa by the current regime of Meles to appease the aggrieved Amhara. An ardent supporter of Communism, Mengistu went to war with Somalia in 1977-78 over the disputed Ethiopia-occupied Ogaden region claimed by Somalia. With reinforcements from the former U.S.S.R, Cuba, Yemen, and other Eastern European countries that constituted the Warsaw Pact Forces, Somalia's unaided army withdrew from the vast territories it had earlier reclaimed or captured from Ethiopia. Somalia's withdrawal gave rise to the creation of the current TFG President of Somalia, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, and to Meles Zenawi, the sitting PM of Ethiopia, who found safe havens at the clash of these two antagonistic forces. Yusuf crossed border to Ethiopia after his failed coup attempt against strongman Siyad Barre while Meles and Afewerki sought refuge in Somalia where they were hosted by Siyad Barre.

Somalia's TFG is in a dilemma as it has never ruled a portion of the country with the exception of the City of Baidoa that serves as its headquarter. Smaller than the Vatican, the City of Baidoa has of late become a target for the well-armed guerilla forces of Al-shabab-the armed-wing of the resistance movement against the TFG and the Ethiopian occupation. Parliamentary members of the TFG have voiced their deepest concerns at the increasing level of violence gripping the city and the rampant increase of Al-shabab incursions in to the heavily fortified city guarded by the Ethiopian and TFG forces. Thus, many of these parliamentarians may pretty soon be left with no other alternative but to seek refuge either in Kenya, Eritrea, or Ethiopia where their safety can be guaranteed until the violence subsides.

Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's Prime Minister and mastermind of the Somali occupation, feels his Somali project is a fiasco and that he is contemplating a strategic exit sooner or later. Likewise, he is to exit Ethiopia's political scene as his re-run for the his nation's Premiership is almost impossible because it would contradict Ethiopia's constitution and also anger the opposition who are bitter at his previous political mismanagement and adulteration of the laws of the land that he swore to uphold when he came to power. Unless he opts to use force to cling to power and quell civil disturbances, the Ethiopian constitution has no room for him come what may 2009.

Likewise, Somalia's President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, is to pack up and leave office in 2009 unless re-elected by parliament for a second-term. Until then, regardless of reconciliation successes between his administration and the many forces with diverse opinions opposed to his rule, what Somalis pray to see, is a strong government that will enforce law and order and reunite Somalia. Whether it will be a refurbished TFG with an all-inclusive government, or the militant al-shabab, or a new administration with multi-faceted ideological foundations, what the future holds for this tattered nation, is in real essence, hard to predict. But what had been predicted by one educated Somali academic about the future of Somalia is clearly emerging in piecemeal: so many poor Ethiopians are settling in the autonomous region of Puntland and and in the breakaway state of Somaliland; the country has become so ungovernable such that it is only the Ethiopian directional compass that can give it a true bearing and heading no matter how deviant that direction might lead; division of mind and conflict of ideology tends to favor Ethiopia's wrong dimensions; every single income from the port, airport, and other tax revenues is being collected for Ethiopian coffers; Somalia has become part and parcel of Ethiopia with administrative dictations coming from the headquarters in Addis Ababa; and that its governor is General Gabre-the Tigreyan General in charge of overseeing the TFG's social activities and political measures.

Even with the exit of Meles and Yusuf and most probably Afewerki in 2009 and beyond, a bleak future awaits the beautiful people of the Horn of Africa. How to bury the hatchet, pick up the pieces, and embark on a new collective strategy will be hard to accomplish. Suspicion, hatred, and gerrymandering will prevail for generations to come.